Which products to promote this month? Which consumer segment should we target? Estimating the impact of past-time marketing campaigns is crucial to guide the design of future market interventions. Important aspects are to include the area and time of the campaign, presence of parallel promotions and holidays and seasonal variations.
In the past, we have evaluated marketing campaigns against an outcome indicator with advanced state-space models. This approach allows to compare the evolution of the outcome metric, subsequent to a marketing campaign, with the predicted metric in a counterfactual scenario, in which no campaign had taken place. By using state-of-the-art models, we can flexibly incorporate multiple influencing factors, seasonality effects and other important metrics.